
The original issue can be found at: http://www.baptistpress.com/issue-06/10/2009

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Drugs, alcohol carry hefty social cost, studies show
by Erin Roach
Date: June 10, 2009 - Wednesday

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (BP)--The social cost of drug use has been analyzed in two federal studies released recently, including one that says half of the men arrested in 10 major U.S. cities tested positive for at least one illegal drug.

A second study found that substance abuse and addiction cost federal, state and local governments at least $468 billion in 2005, accounting for more than one-tenth of combined government expenditures for all purposes.

According to the first report, from the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, a survey of drug use among booked male arrestees in metropolitan areas across the country found that as many as 87 percent tested positive for an illegal drug.

Drug use among the arrestee population is much higher than in the general population, the study, released May 28, said. The percentage of arrestees testing positive for at least one illicit drug ranged from 49 percent in Washington, D.C., to 87 percent in Chicago.

The most common substances present during tests, in descending order, were marijuana, cocaine, opiates and methamphetamine, the report said. Many men tested positive for more than one illegal drug within 48 hours of their booking.

White House officials said the findings underscore a serious need to expand programs that work to divert nonviolent offenders into drug treatment programs instead of prison, given that more than 80 percent of arrestees in eight of the cities had at least one prior arrest.

"Not only does this new report reaffirm the strong link between drug use and crime, but it also tells us that we must concentrate our resources on programs that have been proven to break the cycle of drugs and crime," Gil Kerlikowske, director of National Drug Control Policy, said. 

"Incarcerating offenders without treating underlying substance abuse problems simply defers the time when they are released back into our communities to start harming themselves and our communities again," Kerlikowske said.

Meanwhile, a report from the National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse at Columbia University found that of the $3.3 trillion in total federal and state government spending, 11 percent was spent on tobacco, alcohol and illegal and prescription drug abuse and addiction and its consequences.

Of the $374 billion in federal and state spending on those vices, more than 95 percent went to "shovel up the consequences and human wreckage of substance abuse and addiction" while only 1.9 percent was spent on prevention and treatment, the study said.

The report, also released May 28, was based on three years of research and is the first to assess the costs of tobacco, alcohol and illegal and prescription drug abuse to all levels of government.

"Under any circumstances, spending more than 95 percent of taxpayer dollars on the crime, health care costs, child abuse, domestic violence, homelessness and other consequences of tobacco, alcohol and illegal and prescription drug abuse and addiction and only 2 percent to relieve individuals and taxpayers of these burdens is a reckless misallocation of public funds," Joseph Califano Jr., the center's chairman, said.

Most of the spending on the burden of substance abuse and addiction went to health care, with the second largest amount spent on justice systems, including incarceration, probation, parole and criminal, juvenile and family courts.

Califano said any attempt to reform health care in the United States without providing for prevention and treatment of substance abuse and addiction would be absurd.

The study also said if substance abuse and addiction were its own budget category at the federal level, it would rank sixth behind social security, national defense, income security, Medicare and other health programs including the federal share of Medicaid. And if substance abuse and addiction were its own state budget category, it would rank second behind spending on elementary and secondary education.

For each dollar in alcohol and tobacco taxes and liquor store revenues that federal and state governments collect, the report said they spend $8.95 dealing with the consequences of substance abuse and addiction.

"Despite a significant and growing body of knowledge documenting that addiction is a preventable, treatable and manageable disease, and despite the proven efficacy of prevention and treatment techniques, our nation still looks the other way while substance abuse and addiction cause illness, injury, death and crime, savage our children, overwhelm social service systems, impede education -- and slap a heavy and growing tax on our citizens," Susan Foster, vice president of the Columbia center, said.

Barrett Duke, vice president for public policy at the Southern Baptist Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission, said the studies confirm that the nation is in the midst of a drug abuse crisis in which millions of lives are being destroyed every year.

"The fact that marijuana is the drug most often used by people who are high when they commit crimes serves as an important reminder that our nation cannot let up on its war on drugs, including marijuana," Duke told Baptist Press.

In the multifaceted war on drugs, the United States must continue to work to stop the flow of illicit drugs into the country, Duke said. Citizens must do all they can to discourage illicit drug use and work harder to help people overcome drug dependency and gain the skills and opportunities they need to break the cycle of drug abuse and crime, he said.

"This effort will require more than government engagement. The church's involvement is crucial," Duke said. "Our ministry of evangelism must be only our beginning point in assisting people struggling with drug dependency and crime. After they have trusted Jesus as their Savior, the church must welcome them into loving environments that can provide them with the spiritual, emotional and other support and training they need to reclaim their lives."
--30--
Erin Roach is a staff writer for Baptist Press.


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Cowboy roams Idaho, planting churches
by Mickey Noah
Date: June 10, 2009 - Wednesday

BLACKFOOT, Idaho (BP)--Wearing a hat like the one cowboy actor Tom Mix made famous in westerns in the '20s and '30s along with a vest, brown cowboy boots and a full gray beard, Jim Ballard looks like he just stepped out of a Hollywood studio.

But unlike the silver screen cowboys of old, Ballard spends his long Idaho days recruiting church planters and helping plant churches as director of missions for the Eastern Idaho Southern Baptist Association. He also has served as a North American Mission Board worker for the past seven of his 37 years in ministry.

"Probably the greatest challenge I face is the distances I have to cover," said Ballard, whose association is made up of 13 counties and surrounded by three states -- Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. "There's a lot of distance between places up here."

With his home in Blackfoot, Idaho -- midway between Pocatello and Idaho Falls -- Ballard, 57, says he puts an average of 75,000-80,000 miles a year on his vehicle as he covers his assigned territory.

"It's nothing to drive 500, 600, 700 miles some days," he said.

Ballard preaches at a different church every Sunday in his association, which includes 13 churches and two missions. Some are without pastors or are church plants which haven't yet called a pastor, so Ballard often fills in. He may preach in as many as three churches on a given Sunday, some three hours or 200 miles apart.

Born in Pueblo, Colo., Ballard grew up working on ranches and farms, so he relates well to the ranching and farming community of eastern Idaho.

"I've been around ranchers all my life. Westerners are very individual people but some of the finest people on earth," Ballard said. "... Morally, most of them are very sound. Cowboys believe in God because they see the effects of God outdoors. Their word is their bond. If you get a handshake here, it's better than any contract a lawyer can draw up. But there's also a lot of lost people here."

Ballard calls ranchers some of the greatest innovators on earth.

"They have to make things work -- rebuild old equipment and get by with it with challenging budgets and money to work with. They're rugged individuals -- pioneers," he said.

"At times being a rancher, it seems like you've got everything in the world against you, both in ranching and agriculture," Ballard said. "Prices keep going up on everything except the products ranchers sell. But prices on vehicles and the other equipment they need continue to go up. Ranchers have to be really creative in order to just survive. As one of my friends says, 'It's a way of life rather than a living.' They could all do much better in a different field but this is where their heart is."

And then there are the ranchers' long hours and seven-day work weeks. Most ranchers start before daylight and work long after dark, Ballard said. So for successful church plants and well-attended worship services, missionaries and pastors like Ballard must adjust to ranchers' schedules.

"We have to find times that work for them," he said, explaining that the typical 11 a.m. worship service is out of the question if pastors expect cowboys and ranchers to show up. 

"Their responsibility is the life of their animals. It's their livelihood and a stewardship. Come Sunday morning, the cattle have to be fed just like they do on Fridays and Saturdays. It's seven days a week. So we have afternoon and evening churches up here," Ballard said. "All the chores are done, they're through with their day, so having church later eliminates any excuse for them, as far as coming to church."

Ballard believes his area of Idaho is on the threshold of a church planting movement.

"A vision was cast two years that every church and mission in our association would plant a church within the next five years, and then those church plants would plant another one in the next five years, which would take us from 11 to 56 churches in 10 years' time.

"I'm afraid I way underestimated because we've had three church starts just within the last three months," Ballard said.

Ballard made a special plea to have more Southern Baptists everywhere become part of his prayer group. 

"I've asked the Lord to give me 1,000 prayer partners who have access to e-mail. We need for these partners to pray for the lost to be saved, and that God would raise up church planters. And we are praying for more resources from our Bible Belt churches in the South," he said.

"Some people would call this work hard. It is long miles and grueling work. It's also fulfilling. But yet to me, with 90 percent of the people in eastern Idaho not knowing the Lord, we have the greatest opportunity of anywhere on earth to take the Gospel of Jesus," he said. "I think it's the most exciting place on earth to be -- right here where God's called us."

Ballard said he is seeing a movement afoot in the development of cowboy churches. 

"We're finding out that even if the folks have a Mormon background, if we'll do a cowboy church in their setting, they'll come," he said. 

A cowboy in his 70s recently accepted Christ during a Bible study.

"If you care enough about folks, you're going to spend time with them. When people around here see that you care about what they care about, pretty soon they'll listen to what you have to say," he said.

Ballard has been married to his second wife Myrtle for two years. He was married to his first wife Beverly for 34 years prior to her death in 2006. Between them, Myrtle and Jim have eight children. He attended Oklahoma Missionary Baptist College and Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary.

Prior to coming to Idaho as a church planter and director of missions three years ago, Ballard spent five years in Utah as an associational missionary and church planting strategist. Previously, he pastored churches in Nevada and Colorado.

Jim Ballard is one of more than 5,600 North American Mission Board missionaries supported by the Cooperative Program and the Annie Armstrong Easter Offering for North American missions. To view a video about his and other missionary ministries, visit www.namb.net and click on the "Monthly Missionary Focus" gallery.
--30--
Mickey Noah writes for the North American Mission Board.


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Hunt 'surprised' by talk of combining NAMB, IMB into single missions entity
by Mickey Noah
Date: June 10, 2009 - Wednesday

ALPHARETTA, Ga. (BP)--Speaking to some 200 North American Mission Board staffers at chapel June 4, Southern Baptist Convention President Johnny Hunt said, "I was as surprised as you were when the story hit proposing to join NAMB and the IMB &#91;International Mission Board&#93;.

"The Great Commission Resurgence has absolutely nothing to do with that. I want to clear the air," said Hunt, adding, "God forbid that we call ourselves connected to the Creator of the universe and be afraid of a question. I should never be afraid of a question. I shouldn't be afraid of the examination."

Hunt, senior pastor of the Atlanta-area First Baptist Church in Woodstock, was referring to his recently released "Toward a Great Commission Resurgence" declaration, which offers a 10-point initiative for rekindling Southern Baptists' passion for Jesus' last earthly command to share the Gospel throughout the world. Since its release on April 27, the declaration has been signed by some 3,400 Southern Baptists to date.

"The Great Commission Resurgence is a major North America initiative to help us and the churches reach the United States -– the third-largest lost nation in the world," Hunt told NAMB employees.

Hunt opened with an illustration of soldiers who must take a strongly defended hill.

"The men who are courageous and bold take the hill. But a military rule of battle is that you never place a hill-taker in the role of a hill-occupier. You want the hill-takers to move on to the next hill. If you put the hill-taker in as an occupier, they'll think there are no new hills to take," Hunt said.

Following Hunt's remarks, Geoff Hammond, president of the North American Mission Board, said he sees NAMB as a strategic missions partner for Southern Baptists to take the "North American hill" for Christ.

"Never has there been a time when Southern Baptists need focus so much on this growing sea of lost people called North America," Hammond said. "There is still much land to take for God's Kingdom, whether it's in urban settings, major cities, rural America or among the vast growing number of people groups in North America."

Hunt said, "I'm grateful to God for what we called the Conservative Resurgence &#91;in the SBC&#93;. We needed that and needed to make a stand. But let me ask you a question: Are there any more hills we need to take or was that it?"

Hunt said he still believes that if Baptists would give more than ever before, "we can still fulfill the Great Commission in my lifetime."

"We have the mechanisms, the people, the resources. We don't need to hunker down right now because of the economic downturn," Hunt said. "The last time I checked, God owns the earth and the fullness thereof, and has cattle on a thousand hills. Jesus Christ does not read The Wall Street Journal."

Hunt invited questions from NAMB staff at the end of his message. In answer to a question from one employee, Hunt confirmed he believes in the effectiveness and efficiency of the Cooperative Program, and that it is still as valid today as in 1925 when it began.

"I really believe it is &#91;still valid&#93;. What we've promised as national leaders is that we would be open, vulnerable and give great clarity and that's what I'm asking for &#91;in the Great Commission Resurgence&#93;.

"I think we still have the greatest structure &#91;for giving&#93;, although I was quoted in a national article that I was going to dismantle the Cooperative Program and decimate the SBC because I don't believe in the structure. Of course I do. If I didn't, I wouldn't be sending $525,000 undesignated out of my budget, and $2 million designated to Southern Baptist causes this year. If I didn't believe in the Cooperative Program, I wouldn't be doing that."

Hunt also responded when asked the difference between "resurgence" and "refocus." NAMB President Geoff Hammond announced May 20 that he will appoint a "North American Great Commission Task Force" to study the actions and activities that will help Southern Baptists more effectively reach North America for Christ. Hammond has referred to this as a "refocus" on the Great Commission.

"Resurgence involves the need for the rising of the entire denomination," Hunt said. "As you refocus, it will show the areas where you need to rise. I think it's healthy to take a look, whether it's the denomination or the local churches. Somebody said we did that in 1997, but every 18 months knowledge and technology double. &#91;First Baptist&#93; Woodstock looks nothing like it did in 1997, including the church and me. Facts are our friends."

Hunt said that in his 36 years as a Christian, at 56 years old, with 33 years as a pastor and 23 years at Woodstock, he has never lost his passion for the work of Christ. "I think we just have too many people who've gotten over Jesus," he said.

"For the record, let me say I'm first and foremost a local church pastor. I was before and I will be after &#91;his term as SBC president&#93;. I haven't missed a Sunday at my church this year because of the SBC. That's because I believe my platform is stronger if I do what I was called to do with the people of First Baptist Church Woodstock."

In welcoming Hunt to NAMB, Hammond said, "I'm grateful to Johnny for directing the attention of Southern Baptists to the Great Commission This is a great time for NAMB to tell Southern Baptists all we are doing to help them make the greatest impact for the Great Commission." 
--30--
Mickey Noah is a writer for the North American Mission Board.


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ANALYSIS: What do the numbers mean -- is the SBC in decline?<br>Part 1 Membership & Baptisms
by Will Hall
Date: June 10, 2009 - Wednesday

<i>EDITOR'S NOTE: The following is the second of four articles which address research that has been published within the last year or so about people of faith in the U.S. The series examines Christianity in America, what the numbers mean for the Southern Baptist Convention and the imprint of evangelical voters in the public square. This article and article three examine the SBC.</i>

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (BP)--In April of this year, the Southern Baptist Convention's Annual Church Profile was released showing a decline in membership (-0.20 percent). It was the second drop in a row (-0.24 percent in 2007), and the fourth in SBC history. In 1998, membership fell 1.02 percent but increased the next year, however, it did not recover from that 1.02 percent loss until 2000. Prior to that, the last drop in membership took place in 1926.

The ACP report also showed the fourth consecutive year of decline in baptisms, recording the lowest total (342,198) since 1987 (338,495). Southern Baptists baptized 376,085 in 1950, and in the 58 years since (through 2008), reached a high of 445,725 in 1972 and a low of 336,050 in 1978, and not too long ago, experienced four consecutive years in which baptisms topped 400,000 (1997-2000).

What do these numbers mean?

Is the Southern Baptist Convention in decline or is something else at work?

From 1961 through 1998, Southern Baptist Convention churches grew in membership 59 percent, from 9,978,000 to 15,851,356, while mainline churches' memberships collapsed:

-- Methodists fell from 11,709,629 to 8,500,000 (-27 percent)

-- Episcopalians dropped by 28 percent, 3,500,000 to 2,500,000

-- The Presbyterian Church USA registered 4,000,000 members in 1965 and in 1999 numbered 2,600,000, a decrease of about 36 percent

-- Membership in the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) declined precipitously, from 1,800,000 to 879,000, or 51 percent

Conventional wisdom said liberal theology and ecumenism were the causes for mainline churches to decline, and in 2002 the Catholic-affiliated Glenmary Research Center Institute confirmed this notion, (http://www.bpnews.net/bpnews.asp?id=14339).

Recently, other denominations labeled as "conservative" have continued their growth according to the latest edition of the Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches, published by the liberal National Council of Churches.

So why the drop in SBC membership? What could be the cause for anemic growth the last decade?

Could non-spiritual factors be constricting baptisms? 

Are there influences in play that might affect both baptisms and growth?

MEMBERSHIP

Since 1998, when the SBC experienced its first decline in membership in the modern era, membership in SBC churches has shown signs of leveling off:

1999 15,851,756, up 0.78 percent

2000 15,960,308, up 0.68 percent

2001 16,052,920, up 0.58 percent

2002 16,137,736, up 0.53 percent

2003 16,205,050, up 0.42 percent

2004 16,267,494, up 0.39 percent

2005 16,270,315, up 0.02 percent

2006 16,306,246, up 0.22 percent

2007 16,266,920, down 0.24 percent

2008 16,228,438, down 0.20 percent

In isolation, the ACP data might be interpreted to suggest the SBC is a denomination in decline. However, when ACP information is examined against research conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, it is evident that demographic changes in our country have been the major shaping force of our membership numbers, not outdated methodologies nor a generation gap in the leadership of our churches and institutions. 

The data show that membership and baptism figures are in large part the products of a declining birthrate among Whites as well as the suburbanization of America. This is not to say such demographics hold sway over the power of the Gospel. It does suggest that if we are to continue to grow, we need to shift our church planting strategy in order to give us the best chance of sharing the Gospel with the lost.

Consider, for example, the trend in figures for the White population in the U.S.

It should not surprise many that the SBC is predominately an Anglo fellowship. This is not to demean the vital and intentional efforts to improve the ethnic diversity of our fellowship (more data will follow below), but in terms of "marketing" a message, until recently, the SBC essentially pegged its success in growth to the reaching of one segment of the U.S. population (Until 1951, we restricted ourselves to being a "Southwide" denomination). The growth in this target market boomed following WWII, but now has begun to taper off in terms of real growth. Now, with a birthrate of 1.9 live births per Anglo woman, meaning "fewer births than needed to 'replace' the mother and father in the population," the White, non-Hispanic population in America is expected to peak and then fall, actually declining in number after 2030. Here is how it is trending:

1960 158.8 million

1970 169.0 million (10.2 million increase)

1980 180.3 million (11.3 million increase)

1990 188.1 million (7.8 million increase)

2000 194.6 million (6.5 million increase)

2008 199.8 million (5.2 million increase)

(http://www.bpnews.net/pdf/Whitepopulation.pdf -- Figure 3.1, p. 75, U.S. Census Bureau, "Demographic Trends in the 20th Century." This figure graphs data for all Whites including White Hispanics and not just Whites, non-Hispanic. With just Whites, non-Hispanic, the plot trails off even more as it approaches the year 2000.)

Growth in SBC membership has followed a similar trend, booming in the 1950s through the 1990s, adding by decade, respectively, 2.65 million, 1.9 million, 2.0 million, 1.44 million and 0.9 million. In the past eight years, a net gain of 268,130 members has been added to the rolls. (http://www.bpnews.net/pdf/SBCMembership.pdf -- Figure 1, p. 1, J. Clifford Tharp, Jr., "Reflections on Southern Baptist Membership")

A quantitative analysis will confirm what is evident by sight from comparing the two graphs: The trends for the White, non-Hispanic population in the U.S. and for the SBC's membership pretty much share the same path.

The other demographic shift that is greatly impacting the SBC's growth is the tremendous migration that is occurring in the U.S. -- by those already within her borders.

In 1950, about 56.1 percent of the population lived in a metropolitan area (central city plus suburb), but by 2000, there had been a surge to 80.3 percent who lived in these larger concentrations. 

By contrast, in 1950, SBC churches were found primarily in the cities and countryside of the South, and as of 2000, nearly 50 percent of SBC churches still were located outside of metropolitan areas and also found mostly in the South.

What seems to emerge from all the information is that the answer has less to do with a new methodology of how to do church, and more to do with "location, location, location!"

This is not to suggest that the churches in rural areas are not vital or viable or vibrant. There are believers in rural America who still need to be discipled and receive ministering, and who are needed to reach out to the lost who continue to populate all areas of the U.S., including rural counties.

Moreover, these are the congregations who have been faithful partners with each other, year in and year out, in supporting Southern Baptist ministries -- local, state and national. 

However, if 80 percent of the population now lives in a metropolitan area, the SBC needs to place greater emphasis on an intentional and coordinated plan for church planting in these populated places.

Likewise, if the population of Whites is declining as a percent of the total population, shouldn’t the SBC be doing more to reach minority groups?

From 2000 to 2004, 1 in 2 new Americans was Hispanic, and the Census Bureau predicts by 2050, Hispanics will compose 30 percent of the U.S. population (more than doubling from 15 percent in 2008) and that the Black population will grow during the same time frame from 14 to 15 percent. Asians will increase from 5.1 to 9.2 percent. By contrast, Whites will decrease in proportion from 66 to 46 percent.

In the end, does all this information add up to a denomination in decline?

Not necessarily.

In fact, in regard to increasing the diversity of ethnics within our ranks, the SBC seems to have turned the ship or at least is seeing the bow swing in the right direction.

In 1998, the North American Mission Board recorded that there were 44,949 churches and church-type missions in the SBC, 6,048 (or 13.5 percent) self-identified as predominately ethnic and 38,901 predominately Anglo. Membership was calculated at 637,934 (ethnic) and 14,700,709 (Anglo), respectively.

By 2005, Anglo congregations had grown by 1,267, representing an increase in membership of 364,367. Meanwhile, ethnic churches had surged by 2,668 in numbers and 567,524 in members!

(NOTE: Because information is not captured about individual members, it is not possible to know the exact ethnic composition in the SBC membership. Some Anglo congregations have large numbers of ethnic members. Likewise, ethnic congregations would include at least some who would call themselves "Anglo.")

In the three largest groups of predominately ethnic churches:

-- African American congregations jumped more than 59 percent in number (1,131) with an accompanying membership increase of nearly 118 percent (410,524).

-- Hispanic churches swelled by 852 (43 percent) and membership surged by 61,438 (or about 54 percent).

-- Asian assemblies grew in actual numbers by 393, or 34 percent growth, and in real membership by 60,429, or a whopping 77 percent.

In just seven years, ethnic membership burgeoned from 4.2 percent of SBC membership to 7.4 percent of the men, women, boys and girls within our churches.

More work is needed in order to ensure Southern Baptists are reaching the population within our "Jerusalem and Judea," but these numbers bode well for the future growth of our convention.

Moreover, Southern Baptists should be heartened by other research, both from Christian as well as secular sources:

-- a 2001 Southern Baptist Theological Seminary study reported that 8 out of 10 of the unchurched participants interviewed for this seven-year study said they would accept an invitation to church if asked.

-- the 2007 U.S. Religious Landscape Survey, reported that unaffiliated adults make up 16 percent of the population, but also found that among those who were raised unaffiliated (agnostics, atheists and those who don't identify with any religion), fewer than half remain unaffiliated -- meaning MORE THAN HALF are open to religion.

-- a 2009 report from LifeWay Christian Resources about unchurched young adults stated that "20-somethings" are more open than their older counterparts to hear more about Christianity and that they are more connected to historic Christian beliefs.

With this good news combined with information about the changing U.S. population, it's easy to see the remedy for restoring the health and growth of the SBC is as simple as following the Apostle Paul's model of taking the message to where the crowds already are gathered. 

If not, "How can they hear?"

BAPTISMS

Suburbanization and the slowing growth in the population of White, non-Hispanics exert the same pressures on baptism numbers that they do on membership numbers. However, baptism numbers have been particularly impacted as well by the dramatic and sustained lack of live births in America.

Historically, Southern Baptists have been particularly successful in evangelizing youth and pre-adults, typically reaching in descending order 9-11-year-olds, 6-8-year-olds and 12-17-year-olds. However, according to research compiled in 2000 by NAMB's Philip B. Jones, there has been a noticeable shift in the age groups reached most often by Southern Baptists. In 1971, 68 percent of new believers baptized by Southern Baptists were 18 years old or younger. By 1983, that number had dropped to 53 percent and has stabilized at about 55 percent since.

What explains such a shift?

Jones explained in his 2000 study that "increases or decreases of baptisms in any age group are more a function of population shifts in the United States than of change in the way Southern Baptist churches are emphasizing or implementing evangelism."

In other words, smaller target populations in the younger age groups meant fewer conversions and fewer baptisms among those 18 years old and younger.

In fact, it is remarkable that Southern Baptists have been able to remain fairly steady in baptisms for so long, given the long-term decline in live births in the U.S and at least three contractions (1950, 1990 and 2000) in the 5-19-year-old population that historically has been the most fruitful for Southern Baptists' evangelistic efforts (http://www.bpnews.net/pdf/AmericansByAge.pdf -- Figure 2.4, p. 56, Census Bureau, "Demographic Trends in the 20th Century.")

Since a peak in 1957 (4,308,000 live births, at a rate of 25.3 per 1,000 population), live births in the U.S. have plummeted in real numbers to as low as 3,136,965 (14.9 per 1,000) in 1973 (barely a decade after the invention of the pill, and the same year the Supreme Court ruled in Roe v. Wade to legalize abortion nationwide).

Whatever the causes for the birth slump, what developed was a double "bathtub" effect of sorts from 1957 through 2005, which is demonstrated graphically by Kenneth W. Gronbach in his book, "The Age Curve." Two dips appear in the plotted data: One a dramatically large deficit from 1957 through 1990 and another smaller one from 1990 through 2005. (http://www.bpnews.net/pdf/LiveBirths.pdf -- Figure 1-1, p. 9, "The Age Curve")

Gronbach evaluates the data in business terms, but his observations are relevant for Southern Baptists:

"Marketers seem to miss the fact the generation size is also market size," he wrote. "And marketers don't notice that aging and generational movement are consistent. 

"We can't speed them up and we can't slow them down. Each market has a sweet spot or 'Best Customer' that sustains a business. As customers grow up, a smart marketer will stay in front of them...," he concluded.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

For too long, the numbers produced by the ACP have been used in isolation to assess on the basis of face value the evangelistic effectiveness of our churches. Unfortunately, what have resulted largely are superficial conclusions and calls for abandoning what is broadly described as "1950s methodologies." 

What was needed instead -- and needed now -- is robust questioning about the numbers and a comprehensive examination of the data in context of other information in order to develop an effective strategic plan for cooperative evangelism and church planting.

Some knowledgeable men have made this point before.

Cliff Tharp, Annual Church Profile statistician for LifeWay (now retired), published two papers in 2005, "Reflections on Southern Baptist Membership" (http://www.bpnews.net/pdf/TharpMembership.pdf) and "Reflections on Southern Baptist Baptisms" (http://www.bpnews.net/pdf/TharpBaptisms.pdf) that should be required reading for anyone making proposals for how we move forward as a convention. Even earlier (2000), NAMB statistician Philip B. Jones (also retired) used information about demographic changes in the U.S. to develop a particularly relevant paper for Southern Baptists, "Strategic Planning Indicators" (http://www.bpnews.net/pdf/JonesBaptisms.pdf).

It's unfortunate that neither statistician seemed to have prevailed in informing SBC leaders. Tharp's and Jones' work could have helped move the SBC that much further along by now toward improving the health and growth of the convention.

Also unfortunate is the rhetoric claiming the SBC's problem is that we're using 1950s methodologies in the 21st century. Some, in pitching a supposed need to adopt "beer garden" methodologies, would have others believe Southern Baptists still use "flannel graphs" to reach the lost.

The reality is that we abandoned some enduring principles of proven methodologies about how to plant and grow churches and reach the lost.

What used to be called neighborhood Sunday School units are called house churches in China, and this methodology is facilitating the extraordinary growth of evangelicals, some estimate 30,000 a day or more, in a country hostile to Christianity -- or at least hostile to that Christianity which is not government-approved.

Likewise, Southern Baptists abandoned Training Union, which was an effective method of intentionally teaching our beliefs while also developing loyalty to Southern Baptist causes. The issue is not "style" or "form" or "Training Union" but a matter of acting deliberately and vigorously to inform and equip our membership programmatically in order to ensure there will be a next generation to build on and to grow the work of Southern Baptists.

NEXT: Is the SBC aging and losing its young leaders?
--30--
Will Hall is executive editor of Baptist Press.


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Joyce Rogers: God 'isn't finished with me'
by Lonnie Wilkey
Date: June 10, 2009 - Wednesday

BARTLETT, Tenn. (BP)--For 54 years, Joyce Rogers walked alongside her husband as he became one of the best known pastors in Southern Baptist life.

Adrian Rogers, for 32 years the pastor of Bellevue Baptist Church in Cordova, Tenn., and a three-time president of the Southern Baptist Convention, died in November 2005, just a few months after retiring from the pulpit.

Yet, as Rogers' ministry and legacy lives on through his Love Worth Finding Ministries and the Adrian Rogers' Pastor Training Institute, Joyce Rogers continues a ministry of her own.

Besides serving on the board of directors for both ministries, she is happy blending in as a layperson at Faith Baptist Church in Bartlett, Tenn., where she joined almost two years ago. After teaching Sunday School since the age of 18 and spending more than 30 years working with children at Bellevue Baptist, Rogers is engaged in a Bible study group at Faith and sings in the choir.

Pastor Danny Sinquefield laughs that he and Rogers made a deal that they would keep her joining Faith "under the radar," but that didn't last long. Guest speakers at the church would point out Rogers in the congregation.

Since her cover had been blown, Rogers agreed to be interviewed on stage during an April sermon series Sinquefield was preaching on "Strength for Life's Struggles." A gifted writer who has six books to her credit, Rogers recently had authored "Grace for the Widow: A Journey Through the Fog of Loss."

Sinquefield, the current president of the Tennessee Baptist Convention, questioned Rogers on how she was able to cope with the passing of her husband. She told the church her husband had taught her to love the Word of God and that she was continuing to trust God.

In the foreword of her new book, Rogers wrote: "I trusted God before, and I would trust Him now. God's Word was the basis for my life before. It would be my foundation now." 

After her husband's death, Rogers said she was digging into God's Word and was struck by Isaiah 43:19: "Behold, I will do a new thing, now it shall spring forth; shall you not know it? I will even make a way in the wilderness, and rivers in the desert."

Rogers said she felt a burning sensation as she read that verse and felt God was telling her He "isn't finished with me yet." She continued, "I knew there was hope for tomorrow." 

When Sinquefield asked Rogers what one lesson she had learned during her journey, she replied, "Even though I already knew it, God taught me a deeper level of this truth -- Jesus is enough." She told the congregation her husband would always say you could never know Jesus is enough until He is all you have.

Over the past few years, Rogers has spoken at various Baptist-related meetings and been interviewed by media outlets. She recently spoke to bivocational ministers and wives in Tennessee and is slated as a speaker at the Southern Baptist evangelists' banquet slated in conjunction with the Southern Baptist Convention annual meeting in Louisville, Ky.

"God has called on me to do some interviews since Adrian has been gone," Rogers said. "Afterwards, I look up and ask, 'How did I do? You told me I could do this.' I thank God for helping me."

She also is ministering to others through her writing -- and her latest book is an example.

"The premise of the book is that people can find help for their journey," Rogers said.

She observed that, in the days following her husband's death, it was as if she had been drifting "through a fog." She wanted to provide a simple resource that offered both the "profound and the practical." In her foreword, she writes that "the profound forms the foundation of our lives. This foundation is not built out of mortar and bricks, but from the Word of God."

Rogers also noted, however, that it is important to focus on the practical when dealing with a life crisis such as the death of a spouse.

"I never had a course on how to prepare to be a widow," she told the Faith congregation, but she learned she just had to do the basics -- like getting out of bed and spending time with the Lord. Then, she said, it is simply a matter of "do the next thing." 

In her book, Rogers offers "A Practical To-Do List" of suggestions regarding thank you notes, financial decisions, making a budget, maintaining a balanced life, good nutrition and more. She also encourages people to study the various names of God that are mentioned in Scripture. She devotes a chapter to those names, along with comments on each one from her late husband.

Rogers said she is drawn to two Old Testament names. The first is "Jehovah Shammah," which means "The Lord, Who is There." "God has promised to never leave me," she noted. She also loves the promise found in the name "Jehovah Saboath," which means "The Lord of Hosts." "The Lord of Hosts has promised to be the husband to the widows and the father to the fatherless," she said.

"My earthly protector &#91;Adrian&#93; was gone, but I realized that God would be my protector," she told the Faith congregation.

In addition to her book, Rogers ministers personally to widows she knows. A year or so ago, with the help of her daughter and daughter-in-law, she invited several widows to her home on Valentine's Day. The time included a lunch and, more importantly, a time for reflection on their "sweethearts." 

Yet Rogers doesn't plan for her ministries to focus entirely on widows or on wives of pastors, another group she closely identifies with. She wants to be ready to minister and respond to any opportunity the Lord provides.

She spent 54 years with a man known worldwide for asking people to "come to Jesus," so it's not surprising that this also is one of her strong desires.

"I want to spend the rest of my life asking people to come to Jesus and lay down their sin, sorrow and suffering at the feet of Jesus," she said.
--30--
Lonnie Wilkey is editor of the Baptist and Reflector (tnbaptist.org), newsjournal of the Tennessee Baptist Convention. The Conference of Southern Baptist Evangelists, in addition to hosting Joyce Rogers for a Friday evening banquet, will continue their tradition of providing a Sunday morning worship service for messengers to the Southern Baptist Convention. This year's worship service will begin at 9 a.m. in the Kentucky Exposition Center, Room South C201-203. Featured speakers will be Johnny Hunt, president of the Southern Baptist Convention and pastor of the Atlanta-area First Baptist Church in Woodstock; evangelist Ron Herrod of Tennessee, president of the Conference of Southern Baptist Evangelists; Ergun Caner, president of Liberty Baptist Theological Seminary in Lynchburg, Va.; and international evangelist Sammy Tippit of San Antonio, Texas.


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FIRST-PERSON: The life cycle of a healthy Sunday School class
by David Francis
Date: June 10, 2009 - Wednesday

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (BP)--There are obvious life cycles in nature. Tadpoles emerge as frogs, and caterpillars spin cocoons and reappear as butterflies. 

Couples experience life cycles, too. They begin as married with no kids and transition through raising a family, adjusting to the empty nest and then retiring. Of course, there are dozens of stages in between including challenges like illnesses, relocations and deaths.

Even Sunday School classes have life cycles. But sometimes, like the cocoon that fails to produce a butterfly, Sunday School classes get stuck mid-cycle.  

Take a moment to consider how your Sunday School class is progressing through its life cycle.  

-- Reaching.

This is the most exciting stage for a Sunday School class. The class is probably relatively new, and the leaders and members are still very motivated to reach out to each other and prospective new members.

Absentees are contacted. Teachers strive to learn the stories of their members. Preschool and children's department workers get to know each child and his/her parents, and documenting things like allergies is of urgent importance.  

There is energy around building the group and enthusiasm for seeing boys, girls, men and women grow spiritually. It is an exciting phase of the class life cycle.  

Unfortunately, it tends to lose steam as the group grows and matures. Without intentional effort, the class is likely to settle into a comfortable routine where reaching takes a back seat.  

This phase is rarely found naturally after the first two years of a group's life.  

-- Reviving.

Sometimes a class that has been together more than two years gets fired up again about reaching -- reaching out to prospects, reaching in to members and reaching up through a new commitment to Bible study and prayer. 

This situation isn't unusual in a class that has teams participating in FAITH or a similar Sunday School-based evangelistic ministry, or whose leaders have attended a training event such as Sunday School Week or other associational or state convention-sponsored training.

This phase can last as long as the class leaders keep the fire stirred up, but without their enthusiasm, the natural life cycle will prevail.

-- Releasing.

Another healthy way to prolong the growth of an adult class and keep it "on mission" is for class leaders to consistently encourage members to serve in the preschool, children and student departments.

Great classes are proud of these "members in service" and recognize them in various ways including displaying their names on a poster or bulletin board or posting digital photos of these "missionaries" at work in their rooms. Class leaders should make sure that the best group leaders are assigned to stay in touch with these "associate members," passing along prayer needs to the teacher, communicating class news and inviting these "members in service" to social activities.  

By releasing members to serve, room is made for new folks and the reaching phase is prolonged.  

-- Reproducing.

Eventually, a healthy growing class must face the decision of whether to reproduce itself by releasing several members to start a new class.  

Great classes plan for this decision ahead of time by having apprentice leaders in key positions -- teacher, outreach leader, etc. -- all along. Many of these apprentices will also be serving as care group leaders.  

I once heard a teacher refer to his class as "pregnant," meaning it was approaching the size where it needed to birth a new class. 

Like childbirth, this event will be both painful and joyful, and it should be anticipated like the birth of a new child. This could mean getting a new room ready or maybe even having a "shower" during which the new class receives a coffeemaker and other items that make a room welcoming. Providing leadership training for the new class "parents" should also occur. 

-- Reorganizing.

Sometimes so many classes have reached a saturation point, age groups are so mixed up or room-to-participant ratios are so out of kilter that it is just time to reorganize the whole Sunday School program.

This phase can be avoided if enough classes are releasing and reproducing. At some point, however, this phase becomes necessary if the Sunday School program is to return en masse to the reaching phase.

Is your Sunday School at that point? Do you have the courage to restart the life cycle in order to get back "on mission" to reach people for Christ and assimilate them into His church? I encourage you to take some time and assess the situation.
--30--
David Francis is director of Sunday School at LifeWay Christian Resources of the Southern Baptist Convention.



